Supply Chain Disruption in Uncertain Times

What we are experiencing now is not the new normal. Uncertain times have always been around; some are triggered by macroeconomic factors (unemployment, inflation, economic output), others by the planet trying to kill off humans, terrorism, or poorly written/enforced retail and commercial <insert your industry flavor> industry laws at the state or national level.

 Notable Supply Chain Disruptions:

  • 20XX - global forest fires impacting raw materials sourcing and the construction industry
  • 2007-2008 - residential lending banking crisis; LIBOR rate collusion and fraud; foreclosure filings increased by more than 81% in 2008
  • 2011 - every company using Just-In-Time manufacturing was impacted, as well as all air travel within the US
  • 2015 - Avian Flu outbreak in the US; millions of chickens destroyed, egg production drops significantly to cause egg prices to skyrocket
  • 2017 - Cyclone Enawo struck Madagascar and wipes out 90-100% vanilla bean production in its Antalaha region and 80% of the crop in Sambava; price of vanilla skyrockets 4x its usual trading price; also, prior to the weather event, vanilla farms in other tropical countries had been cutting back on production in order to produce more lucrative crops such as coffee and palm oil
  • 2019 - African Swine Fever - shrunk China's global herd by 55%, expected herd to decline by another 25%, and China pork production to fall by 10% to 15% in 2020;  impact to soybeans produced and exported by US farms for animal feed
  • 2019-2020 - COVID-19 affects multiple industries everywhere
You might think that you're not impacted by vanilla bean production since you don't eat sweets, right? Natural vanilla products are in more than just dairy products (ice cream, yogurt, flavored milk), beverages, and baked goods. Vanilla flavor is in 18,000 global products including breakfast cereal, snacks, perfumes, skincare creams/lotions, and cosmetic products. Price per pound of natural vanilla was $300 in 2017, $600 per 2.2 lbs (1 kg) in 2018, and a slight improvement in 2019 as vanilla production gets better at $450 per kg. Remember when real vanilla extract was less than $10 per 16 fluid oz at Costco? Well that same bottle currently sells for $30 today. One ingredient can impact so many businesses.

2009-2019 Price of Vanilla
Image Source: Cook Flavoring Company
Fast-forward to today's supply chain issues among suppliers, distributors, and end-users (consumers, businesses).

 What's up:

  • companies that are deemed "essential"
  • retail stores that offer delivery, take-out, or store pick-up (grocery stores, restaurants, 
  • manufacturers of personal protection equipment (PPE) and ventilators
  • companies that managed to pivot their production from whatever to PPE and medical supply (e.g., GE, Tesla, GM, beer/spirits manufacturing)
  • subscription boxes w/ free or reduced delivery costs (e.g., meal prep kits, pre-made meals, DIY kits)
  • Amazon - has now removed the product ban on non-essential products shipping to their warehouses
  • Wal-mart - app downloads surpasses Amazon (14.4 mil in the US, 106 mil global uploads)
  • software companies that create/support online learning platforms and video conferencing
  • furniture and hardware companies that create/support remote office and work from home
  • pharmaceuticals working on a vaccine for COVID-19
  • distributed computing apps that rely on crowdsourced content, support, donations (e.g., Einstein@home, Folding@home)
  • fabric wholesalers or retailers (e.g., JoAnn's)


 What's down:

  • everyone else not "essential"
  • rideshare services (Lyft, Uber, etc.)
  • homeshare/rental services (AirBnB, Vacasa, etc.)
  • airport & travel services
  • outdoor event venues
  • movie theaters / entertainment industry
  • live performances
  • schools, churches, local government offices
  • regional seafood supply & production - since dine-in restaurants and schools are shut down; seasonal seafood has nowhere to go
  • consumer automotive sales (might have to transition to more online sales)
  • ridership on public transit
  • global oil demand & decrease in per barrel price
  • amusement parks
  • city/county parks that attract larger crowds
  • trade shows and conventions
  • indoor/outdoor festivals and parades (e.g., regional fireworks show)


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Startup Resources for Remote Work, Pandemic Response

Never in my lifetime have I seen 17 million people file for unemployment within a few weeks. Couple that with all the country-specific travel restrictions, and the shutdown of certain retail industry sectors: entertainment, in-store dining, travel, brick 'n mortar stores, and from a state mandate, closure of non-essential businesses such as daycare centers, hair salons, eateries w/o takeout or delivery options, etc. 

 Here is a compilation of resources that your small business or startup may find useful:

 Video conferencing. Alternatives to Zoom conferencing if user privacy is a concern:



COVID-19 Response Plans. HR policies and procedures that address health and safety of employees


Remote Work Policies & Tools (examples):

Grants and other non-money assistance:
  • Google - $340 million in Google Ads credits available to all SMBs with active accounts over the past year


Small Business Gov't Resources


WA State
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Data-driven diversity and inclusion

This was the topic of an HR.com webcast. Data and artificial intelligence are trending topics for human resources professionals. Diversity & Inclusion (D&I) has been a workplace hot topic for a number of years.

 Organizational impacts of D&I:

  • Organizations with inclusive cultures are twice as likely to meet or exceed financial targets than those without (source: Deloitte)
  • 21% of companies that have greater gender diversity are more likely to have higher profitability (source: McKinsey)
Measurable Diversity (examples)
  • ratio of male to female employees
  • ratio of white to non-white or mixed ethnicity
  • percent of leadership team is female
  • percent of board of directors is ethnically diverse

Workplace Inclusion
  • Why diverse candidates opt out of the recruitment cycle
  • Why high performing diverse employees leave after 2 year
Facets of diversity to consider include: gender identity, race/ethnicity, sexual orientation, age, educational background, family or caregiver status, native language, physical abilities, and veteran status.

Read more:

 Visier's Big Book of People Analytics: D&I
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California Consumer Privacy Act of 2018 (CCPA)

This privacy act became effective on January 1, 2020.

The California Consumer Privacy Act of 2018 (CCPA) is a law that gives California residents more control over their personal information. The CCPA applies to businesses that collect personal information from California residents and that meet certain thresholds, such as having annual gross revenue of $25 million or more, collecting the personal information of more than 50,000 California residents, or deriving more than 50% of their annual revenue from selling personal information.

The CCPA gives California residents the following rights:

  • The right to know what personal information a business has collected about them.
  • The right to delete their personal information.
  • The right to opt out of the sale of their personal information.
  • The right to non-discrimination for exercising their CCPA rights.

Businesses that collect personal information from California residents must comply with the CCPA. If a business violates the CCPA, it may be subject to civil penalties of up to $7,500 per violation.

The CCPA is a landmark law that gives California residents more control over their personal information. It is likely to have a significant impact on businesses that collect personal information from California residents.

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Facebook Ad Transparency

Facebook made ad transparency open to the public in May 2018. The Ad Library is a searchable database of all ads that are currently running on Facebook and Instagram. The Ad Library allows anyone to see the ads that are being run by businesses, organizations, and individuals, as well as the targeting information that is being used to reach those ads.

The Ad Library was created in response to concerns about the use of social media for political advertising. In the lead-up to the 2016 US presidential election, there were concerns that foreign actors were using social media to spread misinformation and propaganda. The Ad Library was intended to help people understand who is paying for political ads on Facebook and Instagram, and how those ads are being targeted.

The Ad Library has been praised by some for its transparency, but it has also been criticized for its limitations. For example, the Ad Library does not include ads that are run by political campaigns, and it does not include ads that are run by foreign actors. Additionally, the Ad Library only includes ads that are currently running, so it does not include ads that have been run in the past.

Despite its limitations, the Ad Library is a valuable tool for understanding the use of social media for advertising. It is important for people to be aware of the ads that are being run on social media, and the Ad Library can help people to make informed decisions about the ads that they see.

Here is an example when searching on the keyword phrase "environmentally friendly sunscreen":

Example of ad in Facebook's Ad Library


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Account-Based Content Marketing

These are just a few examples of account-based content. The key is to create content that is relevant and engaging to your target account. By doing this, you can build relationships, educate them about your products or services, and ultimately drive them to take action.

  • A white paper that addresses a specific challenge faced by your target account.
  • A case study that highlights how your product or service has helped a similar company to your target account.
  • An infographic that provides valuable insights into your target market.
  • A webinar that features a thought leader in your industry.
  • A blog post that answers a frequently asked question about your product or service.

Tips for creating effective ABM content:

  • Start with a clear goal in mind. What do you want to achieve with your ABM content marketing? Do you want to generate leads, build relationships, or drive sales?
  • Target your content carefully. Make sure your content is relevant to your target accounts. Consider their interests, needs, and pain points when creating your content.
  • Use a variety of channels. Don't just rely on one channel to distribute your content. Use a variety of channels that are likely to be used by your target accounts.
  • Track your results. It's important to track the results of your ABM content marketing campaigns so that you can see what is working and what is not. This will help you to improve your results over time.
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Lead Scoring

What is lead scoring and how can it help my marketing campaign performance or making the handshake between a marketing qualified lead (MQL) to a sales qualified lead (SQL) better? I imagine this comes up quite a bit because this list of topics comes up from a simple browser search for lead scoring.

  • Definition
  • Best Practices & Examples
  • Systems & Software
Definition. Lead scoring is used to identify a prospect or customer's inclination and interest level towards a sale of your product or services. A customer downloading a whitepaper or case study from your website is an indication of interest; though just one touch point is not enough for you to make a sale. Scoring methodology typically comes with more robust email marketing and marketing automation platforms, such as Pardot/Salesforce Sales Cloud, ExactTarget/Salesforce Marketing Cloud, HubSpot, Marketo, or Eloqua. Lead scoring gives marketers a way to rank, prioritize, and measure sales leads in order to close a sale. It is typically packaged with email marketing since prospect or customer interest is easily gauged from opens/clicks/interactions/and other web-based actions.

Best Practices. Is there a best way of setting up your lead scoring models? Some platforms only allow one model to run at any given time (looking at you Silverpop). While other platforms use a combination of a numeric and letter scores to attribute rank to leads; with an automated numeric value and/or letter grade that indicates a prospects need or interest in speaking with sales. Aside from the technical setup, speaking with your sales team on what creates the Ah ha! moment for a customer may help you identify when a lead goes from cold to warm to hot. 

Simply creating a campaign that drives prospects to sign up for a demo of your product might not be a best practice; but a marketer's campaign follow-through with additional messaging about how the demo was, when and if a prospect is willing to purchase the product after demoing it is a necessary step to making this action a best practice. Marketing could certainly say that they generated 5,000 SQLs this quarter and it's not their fault that Sales couldn't close a single one. This is why speaking with your sales team is an imperative step in creating best practices for your marketing campaigns.

The unicorn in this scenario is a Sales Accepted Lead (SAL) that covers all of what sales is looking for before starting to close a lead...a prospect's BANT (budget, authority, needs, and timeline). Lead scoring can certainly help you identify who these people are in your database. For every marketing question that a prospect responds to in some positive way, there should be an attributed numeric value that adds to a prospect's lead score.

A cleaner view of who the prospect is (+1 point for each completed field):
  • Contact Name (First, Last, Salutation)
  • Contact Phone (direct or mobile)
  • Contact Title or Contact Role
  • Contact Postal Address
  • Contact Company
  • Contact Email Address
  • Contact Web URL
For most contact records, this will already have a starting score of 1-5 when a prospect joins your database through a web form for a demo, webinar, whitepaper/case study, or general inquiry contact us form.

I'd recommend at least +5 points for any of these firmographic fields:
  • Industry
  • Number of Employees
  • Annual revenue
  • Number of locations
  • Sales cycle stage
  • Decision maker(s)
  • HQ or branch location
And, +50 to +100 points for these types of customer hand raising:
  • Prospect downloads a Demo
  • Sales call to setup/walkthrough product/service demo
  • Prospect's BANT
Basically, the higher the lead score, the more likely they are going to purchase from you. If you use a progressive web forms, a feature of both Pardot and Hubspot, you can gradually get all the contact or firmographic information you want from a prospect who repeatedly comes to your website for content and/or information without having an epic long web contact form at the start.

However, giving a negative score for prospects who are not ready to buy is not the way to reset a prospect's score. An example of this: a K-5 math software company's lead scoring method was to give -100 points to prospects who didn't purchase after a product demo instead of resetting a prospect's score to 0 or some lower number below 50. This made it impossible for prospects who had gone through a demo (but didn't have the budget) to ever get back onto sales' radar.

Systems. You are unlikely to find a lead scoring system outside of email marketing software made for demand or lead generation such as HubSpot, Salesforce/Pardot/ExactTarget, Marketo, Act-On, etc. These are all comparable with each other in terms of triggering marketing or sales messaging, or alerting sales professionals, of a prospect's lead score when prospects take hand raising actions.

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