Notable Supply Chain Disruptions:
- 20XX - global forest fires impacting raw materials sourcing and the construction industry
- 2007-2008 - residential lending banking crisis; LIBOR rate collusion and fraud; foreclosure filings increased by more than 81% in 2008
- 2011 - every company using Just-In-Time manufacturing was impacted, as well as all air travel within the US
- 2015 - Avian Flu outbreak in the US; millions of chickens destroyed, egg production drops significantly to cause egg prices to skyrocket
- 2017 - Cyclone Enawo struck Madagascar and wipes out 90-100% vanilla bean production in its Antalaha region and 80% of the crop in Sambava; price of vanilla skyrockets 4x its usual trading price; also, prior to the weather event, vanilla farms in other tropical countries had been cutting back on production in order to produce more lucrative crops such as coffee and palm oil
- 2019 - African Swine Fever - shrunk China's global herd by 55%, expected herd to decline by another 25%, and China pork production to fall by 10% to 15% in 2020; impact to soybeans produced and exported by US farms for animal feed
- 2019-2020 - COVID-19 affects multiple industries everywhere
You might think that you're not impacted by vanilla bean production since you don't eat sweets, right? Natural vanilla products are in more than just dairy products (ice cream, yogurt, flavored milk), beverages, and baked goods. Vanilla flavor is in 18,000 global products including breakfast cereal, snacks, perfumes, skincare creams/lotions, and cosmetic products. Price per pound of natural vanilla was $300 in 2017, $600 per 2.2 lbs (1 kg) in 2018, and a slight improvement in 2019 as vanilla production gets better at $450 per kg. Remember when real vanilla extract was less than $10 per 16 fluid oz at Costco? Well that same bottle currently sells for $30 today. One ingredient can impact so many businesses.
 |
| 2009-2019 Price of Vanilla Image Source: Cook Flavoring Company |
What's up:
- companies that are deemed "essential"
- retail stores that offer delivery, take-out, or store pick-up (grocery stores, restaurants,
- manufacturers of personal protection equipment (PPE) and ventilators
- companies that managed to pivot their production from whatever to PPE and medical supply (e.g., GE, Tesla, GM, beer/spirits manufacturing)
- subscription boxes w/ free or reduced delivery costs (e.g., meal prep kits, pre-made meals, DIY kits)
- Amazon - has now removed the product ban on non-essential products shipping to their warehouses
- Wal-mart - app downloads surpasses Amazon (14.4 mil in the US, 106 mil global uploads)
- software companies that create/support online learning platforms and video conferencing
- furniture and hardware companies that create/support remote office and work from home
- pharmaceuticals working on a vaccine for COVID-19
- distributed computing apps that rely on crowdsourced content, support, donations (e.g., Einstein@home, Folding@home)
- fabric wholesalers or retailers (e.g., JoAnn's)
What's down:
- everyone else not "essential"
- rideshare services (Lyft, Uber, etc.)
- homeshare/rental services (AirBnB, Vacasa, etc.)
- airport & travel services
- outdoor event venues
- movie theaters / entertainment industry
- live performances
- schools, churches, local government offices
- regional seafood supply & production - since dine-in restaurants and schools are shut down; seasonal seafood has nowhere to go
- consumer automotive sales (might have to transition to more online sales)
- ridership on public transit
- global oil demand & decrease in per barrel price
- amusement parks
- city/county parks that attract larger crowds
- trade shows and conventions
- indoor/outdoor festivals and parades (e.g., regional fireworks show)
